El Niño 2026 in Alaska: what it could do in your county, and what to do

NOAA puts it at three chances in four (75%) that by October–December this is the strongest El Niño in its index record, which goes back to 1950 (Climate Prediction Center, 2026b). A new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes effect 30 days after you buy it, so buy it at least a month before the storms (FloodSmart, n.d.).

The full story, the research behind it and who is working on it now are in the main post.

Make your plan

Alaska, borough or census area by borough or census area

How many of the seven strongest El Niño winters since 1950 brought heavier winter rain than each borough or census area’s 1991–2020 normal (Climate Prediction Center, 2026a; Vose et al., 2014b); heavier rain is what came with the flood and storm disasters listed below. 0 of 30 were wetter in five or more; 22 in two or fewer.

Federal disasters declared in those winters

In the 6 strong El Niño winters since 1965–66, 1 federal weather disaster declaration, recorded by FEMA, covered 1 of Alaska's 30 boroughs and census areas (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2026). Across all its boroughs and census areas, that is 1 designation in 6 winters, or 0.2 a winter, against 0.9 a winter in the other 55.

• 2015–16Severe storm DR-4257Severe Storm · 1 borough or census area

A declaration means damage large enough for federal aid, so these undercount smaller floods and storms. Declarations have also become more common over the decades, which weighs the comparison toward the recent winters.

What to do before the storms

• A new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes effect 30 days after you buy it, so buy it at least a month before the storms (FloodSmart, n.d.).
• Six inches of fast-moving water can knock over an adult, and 12 inches can carry away most cars. More than half of flood drownings happen when a vehicle is driven into flood water (National Weather Service, n.d.-c).
• Before the fire season, clear leaves, debris and anything flammable for at least 30 feet around your home (Ready.gov, n.d.-c).
• After a wildfire, flood risk stays significantly higher for up to five years, until plants grow back (Federal Emergency Management Agency, n.d.).

Every borough or census area

December–February rain as a share of the 1991–2020 normal, and federal weather disaster designations in the strong winters since 1965–66.

National Weather Service offices

The offices that issue forecasts and warnings for Alaska (National Weather Service, n.d.-a):

• NWS Juneau, AK907-790-6800
• NWS Anchorage, AK907-266-5105
• NWS Fairbanks, AK907-458-3700

Questions

How this page was made

Rain is NOAA’s monthly county series (Vose et al., 2014a, 2014b): December–February totals in the seven winters when NOAA’s relative Niño index was 1.5 °C or more (Climate Prediction Center, 2026a), against the 1991–2020 mean. Disasters are FEMA’s county designations for weather incidents beginning November to April, counted from 1965–66 (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2026). Names are the Census Bureau’s (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020); offices are the National Weather Service’s county zones (National Weather Service, n.d.-a). Seven winters is a small sample, and the one ahead is forecast to be stronger than any of them (Climate Prediction Center, 2026b). Retrieved September 24, 2026.

References

1. Climate Prediction Center. (2026a). Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) [Dataset]. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
2. Climate Prediction Center. (2026b, September 10). El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
3. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Flood after fire: The increased risk. Ready.gov. Retrieved https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/Flood_After_Fire_Fact_Sheet.pdf
4. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2026). OpenFEMA dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2 [Dataset]. https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/disaster-declarations-summaries-v2
5. FloodSmart. (n.d.). Buy a policy. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.floodsmart.gov/get-insured/buy-a-policy
6. National Climatic Data Center. (1998). Service Assessment and Report: The winter of 1997–1998 severe storms (Technical Report 98-02). NOAA National Climatic Data Center. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/billions/reports/19971201-19980228-severe-storm/tr9802.pdf
7. National Weather Service. (n.d.-a). API web service. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/documentation/services-web-api
8. National Weather Service. (n.d.-b). NOAA Weather Radio. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/nwr/
9. National Weather Service. (n.d.-c). Turn Around Don’t Drown. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown
10. National Weather Service. (n.d.-d). Wireless Emergency Alerts. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/wrn/wea
11. Ready.gov. (n.d.-a). Financial preparedness. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/financial-preparedness
12. Ready.gov. (n.d.-b). Tornadoes. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/tornadoes
13. Ready.gov. (n.d.-c). Wildfires. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/wildfires
14. Ready.gov. (n.d.-d). Winter weather. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather
15. U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). 2020 FIPS codes for counties and county equivalent entities [Dataset]. https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_county2020.txt
16. U.S. Census Bureau. (2024). 2024 Gazetteer files: ZIP Code Tabulation Areas [Dataset]. https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/geo/gazetteer-files.html
17. Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Squires, M., Durre, I., Menne, M. J., Williams, C. N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., & Arndt, D. (2014a). Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(5), 1232–1251. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-13-0248.1
18. Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Squires, M., Durre, I., Menne, M. J., Williams, C. N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., & Arndt, D. (2014b). NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database (NClimDiv) [Dataset]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5M32STR
19. Ward, A. (2026, September 16). Extreme meteorology (El Niño) with Dr. Marshall Shepherd [Audio podcast episode]. In Ologies with Alie Ward. https://www.alieward.com/ologies/extrememeteorology

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