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El Niño 2026 in Arizona: what it could do in your county, and what to do

In 1997–98, 15 of 15 Arizona counties got more December–February rain than normal, and the median one got 175%. In 2015–16, 0 did, and the median got 66% (Vose et al., 2014b). Here is every county, and a plan for yours.

By Wonders · September 24, 2026 · Data retrieved September 24, 2026

NOAA puts it at three chances in four (75%) that by October–December this is the strongest El Niño in its index record, which goes back to 1950 (Climate Prediction Center, 2026b). A new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes effect 30 days after you buy it, so buy it at least a month before the storms (FloodSmart, n.d.).

The full story, the research behind it and who is working on it now are in the main post.

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Arizona, county by county

How many of the seven strongest El Niño winters since 1950 brought heavier winter rain than each county’s 1991–2020 normal (Climate Prediction Center, 2026a; Vose et al., 2014b); heavier rain is what came with the flood and storm disasters listed below. 11 of 15 were wetter in five or more; 0 in two or fewer.

Mohave County: heavier winter rain than normal in 4 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordSanta Cruz County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordCoconino County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordLa Paz County: heavier winter rain than normal in 4 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordGila County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordPima County: heavier winter rain than normal in 4 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record, and 1 federal flood or storm disaster in themGreenlee County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record, and 1 federal flood or storm disaster in themPinal County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record, and 1 federal flood or storm disaster in themNavajo County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordYuma County: heavier winter rain than normal in 4 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordMaricopa County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record, and 1 federal flood or storm disaster in themGraham County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record, and 1 federal flood or storm disaster in themCochise County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordApache County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on recordYavapai County: heavier winter rain than normal in 5 of the 7 strongest El Niño winters on record
  • 0–1 of 7 lighter winter rain in most
  • 2 of 7 lighter more often
  • 3–4 of 7 no clear pattern
  • 5 of 7 heavier winter rain more often
  • 6–7 of 7 heavier winter rain in most

Federal disasters declared in those winters

In the 6 strong El Niño winters since 1965–66, 1 federal weather disaster declaration, recorded by FEMA, covered 5 of Arizona's 15 counties (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2026). Across all its counties, that is 5 designations in 6 winters, or 0.8 a winter, against 1.2 a winter in the other 55.

  • 1965–66Flooding DR-217Flood · 5 counties

A declaration means damage large enough for federal aid, so these undercount smaller floods and storms. Declarations have also become more common over the decades, which weighs the comparison toward the recent winters.

What to do before the storms

  • A new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes effect 30 days after you buy it, so buy it at least a month before the storms (FloodSmart, n.d.).
  • Six inches of fast-moving water can knock over an adult, and 12 inches can carry away most cars. More than half of flood drownings happen when a vehicle is driven into flood water (National Weather Service, n.d.-c).
  • Before the fire season, clear leaves, debris and anything flammable for at least 30 feet around your home (Ready.gov, n.d.-c).
  • After a wildfire, flood risk stays significantly higher for up to five years, until plants grow back (Federal Emergency Management Agency, n.d.).

Every county

December–February rain as a share of the 1991–2020 normal, and federal weather disaster designations in the strong winters since 1965–66.

CountyWetter
(of 7)		1997–9897–982015–1615–16Normal
(in)		FEMA
Apache CountyApache5121%65%2.92—
Cochise CountyCochise5188%71%3.07—
Coconino CountyCoconino5110%63%3.65—
Gila CountyGila5139%78%6.48—
Graham CountyGraham5175%75%4.041
Greenlee CountyGreenlee5131%68%4.281
La Paz CountyLa Paz4222%53%2.26—
Maricopa CountyMaricopa5199%64%3.211
Mohave CountyMohave4146%63%3.53—
Pima CountyPima4236%73%3.161
Pinal CountyPinal5193%66%3.801
Santa Cruz CountySanta Cruz5206%79%3.94—
Yavapai CountyYavapai5148%59%5.06—
Yuma CountyYuma4236%45%1.83—

National Weather Service offices

The offices that issue forecasts and warnings for Arizona (National Weather Service, n.d.-a):

Questions

What can a strong El Niño winter do in Arizona?

In the 6 strong El Niño winters since 1965–66, 1 federal weather disaster declaration (recorded by FEMA) covered Arizona, including 5 of its 15 counties: Flooding (1965–66).

Does El Niño bring more rain to Arizona?

In the seven strongest El Niño winters since 1950, 11 of Arizona's 15 counties with a full record got more December–February rain than their 1991–2020 normal in at least five of the seven, and 0 in two or fewer. The rest, 4, show no consistent pattern. Heavier winter rain came with the flood and storm disasters listed on this page, and a new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes 30 days to start.

What did the 1997–98 El Niño do in Arizona?

15 of 15 counties got more December–February rain than normal; the median county got 175% of normal.

How did the 2015–16 El Niño compare?

0 of 15 counties got more rain than normal, and the median county got 66% of normal, against 175% in 1997–98. A strong El Niño does not tell you which winter you will get, so prepare for the wet one: a new flood insurance policy usually takes 30 days to start.

Which National Weather Service offices cover Arizona?

NWS NWS Flagstaff, AZ, NWS NWS Tucson Arizona, NWS NWS Phoenix, NWS Las Vegas, NV. Enter a ZIP code above to find the one for your address.

How this page was made

Rain is NOAA’s monthly county series (Vose et al., 2014a, 2014b): December–February totals in the seven winters when NOAA’s relative Niño index was 1.5 °C or more (Climate Prediction Center, 2026a), against the 1991–2020 mean. Disasters are FEMA’s county designations for weather incidents beginning November to April, counted from 1965–66 (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2026). Names are the Census Bureau’s (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020); offices are the National Weather Service’s county zones (National Weather Service, n.d.-a). Seven winters is a small sample, and the one ahead is forecast to be stronger than any of them (Climate Prediction Center, 2026b). Retrieved September 24, 2026.

References

  1. Climate Prediction Center. (2026a). Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) [Dataset]. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  2. Climate Prediction Center. (2026b, September 10). El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
  3. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Flood after fire: The increased risk. Ready.gov. Retrieved https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/Flood_After_Fire_Fact_Sheet.pdf
  4. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2026). OpenFEMA dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2 [Dataset]. https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/disaster-declarations-summaries-v2
  5. FloodSmart. (n.d.). Buy a policy. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.floodsmart.gov/get-insured/buy-a-policy
  6. National Climatic Data Center. (1998). Service Assessment and Report: The winter of 1997–1998 severe storms (Technical Report 98-02). NOAA National Climatic Data Center. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/billions/reports/19971201-19980228-severe-storm/tr9802.pdf
  7. National Weather Service. (n.d.-a). API web service. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/documentation/services-web-api
  8. National Weather Service. (n.d.-b). NOAA Weather Radio. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/nwr/
  9. National Weather Service. (n.d.-c). Turn Around Don’t Drown. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown
  10. National Weather Service. (n.d.-d). Wireless Emergency Alerts. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.weather.gov/wrn/wea
  11. Ready.gov. (n.d.-a). Financial preparedness. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/financial-preparedness
  12. Ready.gov. (n.d.-b). Tornadoes. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/tornadoes
  13. Ready.gov. (n.d.-c). Wildfires. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/wildfires
  14. Ready.gov. (n.d.-d). Winter weather. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Retrieved September 24, 2026, from https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather
  15. U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). 2020 FIPS codes for counties and county equivalent entities [Dataset]. https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_county2020.txt
  16. U.S. Census Bureau. (2024). 2024 Gazetteer files: ZIP Code Tabulation Areas [Dataset]. https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/geo/gazetteer-files.html
  17. Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Squires, M., Durre, I., Menne, M. J., Williams, C. N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., & Arndt, D. (2014a). Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(5), 1232–1251. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-13-0248.1
  18. Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Squires, M., Durre, I., Menne, M. J., Williams, C. N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., & Arndt, D. (2014b). NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database (NClimDiv) [Dataset]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5M32STR
  19. Ward, A. (2026, September 16). Extreme meteorology (El Niño) with Dr. Marshall Shepherd [Audio podcast episode]. In Ologies with Alie Ward. https://www.alieward.com/ologies/extrememeteorology

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